An analysis by Daryl Press and Nicholas D. Anderson published in International Security examines the critical shift in the military balance of power in maritime East Asia, focusing on the vulnerability of U.S. forces—specifically land-based air power—in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
A new, unclassified modeling approach was developed to transparently assess multiple conflict scenarios, including alternative U.S. basing options and varied People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attack strategies. The study reveals three primary findings:
- The United States’ current forward-based defense posture for Taiwan carries a significant risk of catastrophic defeat.
- The U.S. Air Force’s proposed response to this challenge is assessed as both ineffective and potentially escalatory.
- A more viable solution involves a combination of hardening air bases, enhancing missile defenses, and improving local jamming capabilities at U.S. facilities.
Their research concludes that U.S. national security policy toward China has reached an inflection point. Washington must either significantly invest in enhancing the resilience of its forces, increase reliance on less-vulnerable military instruments, or re-evaluate its broader geopolitical objectives in the region. The existing strategy of deterring aggression with a vulnerable posture is viewed as unsustainable.
The current path, seeking to deter Chinese attacks with a vulnerable forward-based military posture, courts disaster.
Read here.
